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Ben Bernanke makes case for Fed to take more action - USA TODAY

Posted: 31 Aug 2012 08:46 AM PDT

In a highly anticipated speech Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Friday called "the stagnation of the labor market in particular a grave concern," reiterating that the Fed is prepared to do more to stimulate stronger growth.

Ted S. Warren, AP

With the Teton Mountains behind them, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, left, and Bank of Israel Gov. Stanley Fischer walk together outside of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Aug. 31, 2012, at Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Ted S. Warren, AP

With the Teton Mountains behind them, Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, left, and Bank of Israel Gov. Stanley Fischer walk together outside of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Aug. 31, 2012, at Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Friday's economic reports

Consumer sentiment in August rose to 74.3, above July's small drop of 72.3 and above the consensus estimate of 73, according to the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's monthly consumer survey.

Factory orders in July rose 2.8%, compared to a 1.6% gain in June and May, the Census Bureau said. Inventories rose 0.7%, beating June's 0.3% increase. Inventories have risen 30 of the past 31 months.

Yet while Bernanke left the door open to such action soon, he stopped short of telegraphing the timing of any further action that many investors and Fed watchers were seeking.

"He essentially did lay out the case for doing more action," says Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist for IHS Global Insight.

But while Bernanke appears to support more asset purchases, other member of the Federal Open Markets Committee have voiced varying views. "He's not going to ram it through," Gault adds.

At a meeting in Jackson Hole two years ago, Bernanke strongly hinted the Fed was poised to buy more Treasury bonds, a strategy that lowered rates well before the Fed actually voted two months later to purchase $600 billion in Treasuries.

A similar foreshadowing this year seemed possible. At its meeting early this month, many Fed policymakers determined that additional stimulus would be needed unless economic data "pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of economic recovery," according to minutes of the meeting.

While growth remains subpar three years into the economic recovery, the latest round of economic reports have been mixed. In July, employers added a better-than-expected 163,000 jobs, consumer spending picked up and pending home sales climbed to the highest level in two years.

At the same time, manufacturing activity has weakened recently, consumer confidence in August fell to its lowest level in 10 months and second-quarter economic growth was revised up slightly last week to a still-tepid 1.7% annual rate.

In his speech, Bernanke called the economy is "far from satisfactory" and he called job growth "painfully slow." New jobs created slowed from a monthly average pace of 226,000 the first quarter to 73,000 a month on average in the second quarter. He said obstacles to a stronger recovery include a weak housing market despite recent signs of life, the European financial crisis, tight credit standards and looming federal tax increases and spending cuts in January that could push the U.S. back into recession if a divided Congress can't agree on how to mitigate their impact.

Bernanke also said further Fed action could help the economy because there's little evidence that the slow decline in the unemployment rate — now at 8.3% — reflects structural labor-market problems that would be immune to Fed action. Structural problems could include a high number of laid-off manufacturing or construction workers who lack skills needed for new high-tech or health care jobs.

Still, the Fed chair said such costs "appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant."

Bernanke also cited studies showing that the Fed's previous initiatives to buy more than $2 trillion in government securities have lowered yields on 10-year Treasuries by about a percentage point, lowering borrowing costs for consumers and small businesses, and possibly led to the creation of 2 million jobs.

Even so, Bernanke pointed out that "the possible benefits" of more asset purchases "must be considered alongside its potential costs." For example, he said, the Fed could stoke inflation or become too dominant a player in the market, damping private trading.

Addressing the Fed's risk of stoking inflation, many Fed watchers say, is for the Fed to buy mortgage-backed securities, rather than Treasuries, to more sharply push down mortgage rates and help jump-start the housing market. However, while mortgage rates are already near historic lows, many consumers can't qualify for home loans because their existing houses are worth less than what they owe.

And a third round of stimulus would likely invite criticism from Republicans that the Fed's actions risk eventual inflation, a charge that could be particularly controversial less than 100 days before this fall's presidential election.

The Fed could take the more modest step of suggesting it will keep short-term interest rates near zero until at least 2015, placing further downward pressure on interest rates, says Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics. The Fed has said it expects to keep rates very low until at least late 2014.

There's no doubt that each round of Fed stimulus has had less impact than the previous one, analysts say.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Fed has purchased more than $2 trillion in Treasuries, mortgage-backed securities and other debt in an unprecedented effort to lower long-term rates and coax investors to shift assets to stocks, boosting markets. It decided in early 2009 to buy $1.7 trillion in Treasury and mortgage bonds, followed by the $600 billion in Treasury purchases in 2010.

Under a program begun last September — and extended in June through 2012 — the Fed plans to buy $667 billion of short-term Treasuries and use the proceeds to buy longer-term Treasuries. By reducing the supply of long-term Treasuries in the market, the Fed hopes to exert downward pressure on long-term interest rates.

IHS Global Insight's Gault says the recent modest uptick in economic activity isn't enough to head off another round of Fed stimulus.

"It's hard to argue that the evidence of the last month or two constitutes a substantial and sustainable improvement," Gault says.

Still, he says that the cloudy economic picture suggests that Fed policymakers will look closely at upcoming data, likely avoiding a commitment to additional action in September until they see more recent data, particularly the government's employment report for August, which is due out Sept. 7. The European Central Bank also could take additional steps at a Sept. 6 meeting to ease Europe's debt crisis.

Clint Eastwood riff distracts from successful Romney convention - Washington Post

Posted: 31 Aug 2012 09:26 AM PDT

TAMPA—Now we know why political conventions are scripted.

Mitt Romney delivered a good and personal acceptance speech on Thursday night. His campaign produced a sterling video about the candidate. People who know Romney offered testimony about his values, his compassion and his business acumen. But all anyone seemed to be talking about when the convention ended was Clint Eastwood and an empty chair.

Kredit: www.nst.com.my

Jumaat, 31 Ogos 2012