Isnin, 17 Jun 2013

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Ringgit opens softer against US dollar

Posted: 17 Jun 2013 06:55 PM PDT

The ringgit continued its downtrend against the US dollar, in early trade, on selling pressure with growing expectation that the US will pare down its bond-buying programme which will reduce the amount of money flowing into Asian financial markets, dealers said.

The ringgit weakened to 3.1455/1485 against the greenback from 3.1315/1345 yesterday.

The local currency eased against the Singapore dollar to 2.5034/5074 from 2.4966/5010 yesterday and declined against the yen to 3.3184/3226 from 3.3015/3054.

It dipped against the British pound to 4.9444/9494 from 4.9199/9256 on Monday and depreciated against the euro to 4.2036/2080 from 4.1787/1833 yesterday.-- Bernama

Short-term rates to remain stable

Posted: 17 Jun 2013 07:14 PM PDT

Short-term interbank rates are expected to remain stable today as Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) intervenes to absorb excess
liquidity from the financial system.

The central bank estimated today's liquidity at RM26.448 billon in the conventional system and RM3.042 billion in Islamic funds.

The BNM will call for a RM6 billion money market tender with range maturity auction for two days to 92 days.

It will also conduct Crepo tenders comprising RM200 million for 30 days and RM500 million for 122 days.


The central bank will carry out Al-Wadiah tenders of RM400 million each for seven days and 21 days and RM500 million for 14 days.

At 4pm, Bank Negara will conduct up to RM19.7 billion in conventional overnight tender and a RM1.8 billion Al-Wadiah overnight tender.-- Bernama

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Supreme Court: Arizona law requiring citizenship proof for voters is illegal - Fox News

Posted: 17 Jun 2013 08:19 AM PDT

The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states cannot on their own require would-be voters to prove they are U.S. citizens before using a federal registration system designed to make signing up easier.

The justices voted 7-2 to throw out Arizona's voter-approved requirement that prospective voters document their U.S. citizenship in order to use a registration form produced under the federal "Motor Voter" voter registration law.

Federal law "precludes Arizona from requiring a federal form applicant to submit information beyond that required by the form itself," Justice Antonia Scalia wrote for the court's majority.

The court was considering the legality of Arizona's requirement that prospective voters document their U.S. citizenship in order to use a registration form produced under the federal "motor voter" registration law. The 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals said that the National Voter Registration Act of 1993, which doesn't require such documentation, trumps Arizona's Proposition 200 passed in 2004.

Arizona appealed that decision to the Supreme Court.

"Today's decision sends a strong message that states cannot block their citizens from registering to vote by superimposing burdensome paperwork requirements on top of federal law," said Nina Perales, vice president of litigation for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund and lead counsel for the voters who challenged Proposition 200.

"The Supreme Court has affirmed that all U.S. citizens have the right to register to vote using the national postcard, regardless of the state in which they live," she said.

The case focuses on Arizona, which has tangled frequently with the federal government over immigration issues involving the Mexican border. But it has broader implications because four other states -- Alabama, Georgia, Kansas and Tennessee -- have similar requirements, and 12 other states are contemplating such legislation.

Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito dissented from the court's ruling.

The Constitution "authorizes states to determine the qualifications of voters in federal elections, which necessarily includes the related power to determine whether those qualifications are satisfied," Thomas said in his dissent.

Opponents of Arizona's law see it as an attack on vulnerable voter groups such as minorities, immigrants and the elderly. They say they've counted more than 31,000 potentially legal voters in Arizona who easily could have registered before Proposition 200 but were blocked initially by the law in the 20 months after it passed in 2004. They say about 20 percent of those thwarted were Latino.

Barbara Arnwine, president and executive director of the Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, called the decision a victory. "The court has reaffirmed the essential American right to register to vote for federal election without the burdens of state voter suppression measures," she said.

But Arizona officials say they should be able to pass laws to stop illegal immigrants and other noncitizens from getting on their voting rolls. The Arizona voting law was part of a package that also denied some government benefits to illegal immigrants and required Arizonans to show identification before voting.

The federal "motor voter" law, enacted in 1993 to expand voter registration, requires states to offer voter registration when a resident applies for a driver's license or certain benefits. Another provision of that law -- the one at issue before the court -- requires states to allow would-be voters to fill out mail-in registration cards and swear they are citizens under penalty of perjury, but it doesn't require them to show proof. Under Proposition 200, Arizona officials require an Arizona driver's license issued after 1996, a U.S. birth certificate, a passport or other similar document, or the state will reject the federal registration application form.

While the court was clear in stating that states cannot add additional identification requirements to the federal forms on their own, it was also clear that the same actions can be taken by state governments if they get the approval of the federal government and the federal courts.

Arizona can ask the federal government to include the extra documents as a state-specific requirement, Scalia said, and take any decision made by the government on that request back to court.  Other states have already done so, Scalia said.

The Election Assistance Commission "recently approved a state-specific instruction for Louisiana requiring applicants who lack a Louisiana driver's license, ID card or Social Security number to attach additional documentation to the completed federal form," Scalia said.

The case is 12-71, Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Arizona, Inc.

UPDATE 2-US justices say FTC can challenge deals that keep generic drugs off ... - Reuters

Posted: 17 Jun 2013 08:51 AM PDT

Mon Jun 17, 2013 11:50am EDT

By Lawrence Hurley and Diane Bartz

(Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled on Monday that regulators can challenge the deals brand-name drug companies make with generic rivals that delay cheaper products from going on the market, deals that regulators say boost total costs of the medicines by billions of dollars.

In a 5-3 vote, with Justice Samuel Alito recused, the court said the Federal Trade Commission can challenge a deal it was examining. But the court declined the FTC's request to declare the deals to be presumed to be illegal.

The companies involved in the deal the court was examining were brand-name drug maker Solvay Pharmaceuticals Inc, now owned by AbbVie ; and generic makers Actavis Inc, previously Watson Pharmaceuticals; Paddock Laboratories Inc, now part of Perrigo Co, and Par Pharmaceutical Cos .

In the deals in question, which regulators have branded "pay-for-delay," brand-name manufacturers settle patent infringement litigation by paying generic manufacturers to stay out of the market for a specified period.

The Federal Trade Commission has fought the practice in court for more than a decade.

In the case before the court, Solvay sued generic drugmakers in 2003 to stop the sale of cheaper versions of AndroGel, a gel used to treat men with low testosterone.

In a settlement of the lawsuit, Solvay paid as much as $30 million annually to the generic drug makers to help preserve its annual profits from AndroGel, estimated at $125 million.

Under the deal, the three would keep their generic versions off the market until 2015. The patent expires in 2020.

The FTC filed a lawsuit against the companies in 2009, arguing that the companies had simply split up Solvay's monopoly profits and prevented the generic firms from bringing out a cheaper version of the drug.

The FTC lost at the district court level, and that loss was affirmed by 11th Circuit Court of Appeals. The Supreme Court overturned the appeals court ruling and sent the case back to the lower courts for further proceedings.

POTENTIAL HARM TO COMPETITION

In his opinion for the majority, Justice Stephen Breyer wrote that the deals have the potential to hurt competition.

"Settlement on the terms said by the FTC to be at issue here - payment in return for staying out of the market - simply keeps prices at patentee-set levels, potentially reducing the full patent-related $500 million monopoly return while dividing that return between the challenged patentee and the patent challenger," Breyer wrote. "The patentee and the challenger gain; and the consumer loses."

The court said that not all such deals were illegal, suggesting that drug companies may be able to show that some pay for delay deals are legal under the "rule of reason," the opinion said.

Spokesmen for AbbVie, Paddock and Par were not immediately available for comment. The FTC also had no immediate comment.

The case is Federal Trade Commission v. Watson Pharmaceuticals Inc et al, U.S. Supreme Court, No. 12-416.

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Ahad, 16 Jun 2013

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Ringgit opens lower against US dollar

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 06:55 PM PDT

The ringgit was traded lower against the US dollar in early trading today on selling of the foreign currency as news of
the US trimming on its stimulus measures undermined sentiments in the financial markets, dealers said.

There are also concerns that there will be less money circulating in emerging markets, they said.

The ringgit was quoted at 3.1200/1230 from 3.1130/1160 against a US dollar on Friday.

The local currency was trader easier against the Singapore dollar at 2.4912/4946 from 2.4840/4884 Friday and was also lower against the yen at 3.2932/2978 from 3.2762/2797 last week.


The ringgit also weakened against the euro at 4.1602/1648 from 4.1481/1527 and depreciated against the British pound at 4.9018/9069 from 4.8631/8688 Friday.-- Bernama

KL shares slip further in early trading

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 06:53 PM PDT

Share prices on Bursa Malaysia slipped further in early trading today, continuing from last week's losses as investors took the cue from further downtrend on Wall Street last Friday, dealers said.

Ten minutes after opening, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) declined 2.63 points to 1,759.56 from Friday's close at 1,762.19.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said negative vibes from the global equity markets may spill over to Asian equities today.

On Friday, the Wall Street, which ended in the red, saw leading US equity indices down between 0.6 per cent and 0.7 per cent at closing, renewed concerns of a premature withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Federal Reserve, it said.

"Back home, the key FBM KLCI could surrender parts of its 19.3-point gain chalked up last Friday. However, from a technical perspective, we reckon the benchmark index will likely find intermediate support at the 1,750 level," said the research house in a note today.

On the scoreboard, the Finance Index was 31.371 points lower at 16,637.43, the Industrial Index eased 2.18 points to 3,001.33 and the Plantation Index lost 29.5 points to 8,370.82.

The FBM Emas Index shed 15.631 points to 12,235.52, the FBMT100 dwindled 15.96 points to 11,995.05, the FBM Mid 70 Index eased 10.87 points to 14,045.89 while the FBM Ace Index rose 21.72 points to 4,775.99.

It was thin trading at the bourse with gainers leading losers by 93 to 91, with 137 counters unchanged, 1,262 untraded and 19 suspended.

Turnover stood at 81.288 million shares worth RM32.275 million.

Among actives, Patimas Computers and Sycal Ventures were both unchanged at five sen and 41 sen, respectively, while Eti Tech Corporation lost one sen to 8.5 sen.

Heavyweights, Maybank declined four sen to RM10.14, CIMB eased five sen to RM8.12 while Sime Darby was unchanged at RM9.53.

Axiata Group gained one sen to RM6.63.-- Bernama

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Obama doesn't think NSA programs violated Americans' privacy, WH says - CBS News

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 07:59 AM PDT

(CBS News) President Obama does not believe his administration has violated the privacy of any American in light of leaked documents detailing sweeping government surveillance programs, White House Chief of Staff Denis McDonough said Sunday on "Face the Nation," and he plans to make clear that sentiment "in the days ahead."

Claims from Edward Snowden - the former National Security Agency computer technician who leaked top-secret documents detailing the surveillance reach - that he, sitting at his desk, had the authorities to wiretap anyone, "from you or your accountant, to a federal judge, to even the president if I had a personal email" are "incorrect" and will be adjudicated over time, McDonough said.

McDonough would not say, however, that the government is entirely in the right in its collection of phone records and mining of data from the servers of nine major Internet companies: "If there's problems, we're gonna get to the bottom of them," he said. "We do have to find the right balance, especially in this new situation when we find ourselves, with all of us reliant on Internet, on email, on texting. So we find ourselves communicating in different ways - but that means the bad guys are doing that as well.

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Keeping in mind that the programs were designed to track movement and communication of suspected terrorists, McDonough went on, "the president recognizes more than anybody that he has a fundamental obligation to the American people, and that's to keep them safe. But he also swore an oath to uphold the Constitution. He believes that we can do both, he believes that we are doing both, and he's proud of the work that we've been able to undertake to do that."

Mr. Obama is not simply telling Americans, "trust me," McDonough d, tossing to the famous Reagan doctrine, "trust but verify;" "the president is saying, 'I want every member of Congress, on whose authority we are running this program, to understand it, to be briefed on it, and to be comfortable with it.'"

Having entered office in 2009 "pretty skeptical" about the importance and reach of federal surveillance programs, Mr. Obama "changed many things," and in 2009 and 2011 presented a "classified white paper" of the programs to all 535 U.S. lawmakers, so "at the end of the day," McDonough continued, "it was bipartisan majorities that enacted these." McDonough also pointed to oversight of the programs by the Foreign Surveillance Intelligence Court, as well as independent audits.

Indeed, Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich. - chairman of the House Intelligence Committee - agreed later on the program: The NSA programs are "legal" and "comport with the Constitution." But it's the "pattern of deception" coming out of "scandals" like Benghazi and the Justice Department's seizure of journalists' phone records, he argued, that "made it very, very difficult to explain" why the surveillance programs were different.

On Saturday, two top intelligence officials reported that the NSA data collection had successfully thwarted potential terrorist plots in the United States and more than 20 other countries. Rogers explained the way the terrorist-tracking works without violating civil liberties:

"We take the business records by a court order, and it's just phone numbers - no names, no addresses - put it in a lock box," Rogers said. "And if they get a foreign terrorist overseas that's dialing in to the United Sates, they take that phone number... they plug it into this big pile, if you will, of just phone numbers - it's like a phonebook without any names and any addresses with it - to see if there's a connection, a foreign terrorist connection to the United States.

"When a number comes out of that lock box," he continued, "it's just a phone number - no names, no addresses. If they think that's relevant to their counterterrorism investigation, they give that to the FBI. Then upon the FBI has to go out and meet all the legal standards to even get whose phone number that is."

Police reinforcements arrive to quell Turkish protests - USA TODAY

Posted: 16 Jun 2013 07:49 AM PDT

Thousands of people take to the streets of Istanbul overnight, after riot police storm a park that had been occupied for more than two weeks by anti-government protesters. Powered by NewsLook.com

ISTANBUL -— Riot police reinforcements arrived in Istanbul on Sunday morning to help quell demonstrations across the city, as protesters remained defiant a day after police evicted activists from Gezi Park.

Bulldozers cleared the tent city and barricades set up by protesters on Taksim Square while police sealed off the area to keep demonstrators away from the spot that has become the focus of the strongest challenge to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his 10 years in office.

Amnesty International reported four people have died and thousands have been injured since the unrest began May 31 when riot police attempted to remove protesters from Gezi Park, which is slated for demolition. The Turkish Medical Association puts the number of injured at 7,500.

Taksim Solidarity — an umbrella group that helped organize the mass demonstrations against the government — has called on supporters to gather in Istanbul's Taksim Square.

Crowds amassed Sunday along several arteries leading to the square but are being held back by riot police firing tear gas and water cannon, witnesses told USA TODAY.

Meanwhile, senior figures in Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party have warned that anyone who defies a ban on the demonstrations would be considered a terrorist and treated accordingly.

"From now on the state will unfortunately have to consider everyone who remains there a supporter or member of a terror organization," Minister for European Union Affairs Egemen Bagis said late Saturday. "The protests from now on will play into the hands of some separatist organizations that want to break the peace and prioritize vandalism and terrorism."

Many demonstrators on the ground reject being labeled as extremists. Baris Uyar, 35, an electronic engineer, said he'd been demonstrating for more than two weeks.

"I don't know, of 10,000 people, there might be one person throwing a stone, but the police were throwing tear gas at those thousands of people," he said. "There is provocation on several sides, but the main duty of a democratic government is to prevent such things."

Amnesty said police detained more than 100 people overnight Saturday but refused to release information on their identities or whereabouts.

"Following a night of shocking police violence, the authorities are now denying due process to those they have detained," Andrew Gardner, Amnesty International's researcher in Istanbul, told reporters. "The police must release them immediately or disclose their location and allow access to family members and lawyers."

The London-based human rights group criticized police tactics of using tear gas and water cannon laced with a chemical irritant on thousands of demonstrators trying to reach Taksim Square.

"Protests have been overwhelmingly peaceful, and there is no legitimate reason to prevent all forms of protest in the area," Gardner said.

Erdogan is scheduled to address his supporters at a rally in the western part of the city on Sunday. Thousands are expected to attend the rally, which follows a similar event Saturday in the capital of Ankara, where the prime minister said his party spoke for a silent majority.

"The people of Turkey protect their government," he said Saturday. "The people of Turkey protect their democracy and willpower."

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Sabtu, 15 Jun 2013

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Moderate cleric Rohani to be Iran's next president: minister - Reuters

Posted: 15 Jun 2013 09:01 AM PDT

Election officials count votes during the Iranian presidential elections in Qom, 120 km (75 miles) south of Tehran June 15, 2013. REUTERS/Fars News/Seyed Ruhollah Kalantari

DUBAI | Sat Jun 15, 2013 12:00pm EDT

(Reuters) - Moderate cleric Hassan Rohani has won Iran's presidential election, Interior Minister Mostafa Mohammad-Najjar announced on state television on Saturday.

Najjar said 72 percent of the 50 million eligible Iranians had turned out to vote, and that Rohani had secured just over the 50 percent of the vote needed to avoid a run-off.

(Reporting by Yeganeh Torbati, Marcus George, Zahra Hosseinian and Jon Hemming, Writing by William Maclean; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

CIA will lead US effort to arm, train Syrian rebel forces, Fox confirms - Fox News

Posted: 15 Jun 2013 08:32 AM PDT

The United States will supply Syrian rebels with weapons through a CIA-run program, FoxNews confirmed Saturday.

President Obama decided Thursday to supply rebel forces with small arms and ammunition, following confirmation that the regime of Syria President Bashar al-Assad's has been using chemical weapons in the 2-year-long civil war in which at least 90,000 people have been killed.

In addition to supplying the weapons, the CIA will train rebel forces, Fox News also confirmed.

Obama vowed last summer to take action should the Assad cross a "red line" by using chemical weapons but has been challenged in verifying whether his forces used chemical weapons and in determining which rebel forces can be trusted.

However, the rebels being supplied with only small arms has disappointed some Capitol Hill lawmakers and other Americas who want a more robust response and who say the administration's actions might be too little, too late as Assad forces appear to be taking control of the war.

The White House has still not decided whether to send anti-tank weapons.

Arizona Republican John McCain, a military hawk, wants much heavier arms, including anti-aircraft missiles to go after Assad's air power.

Russia, for its part, question the evidence presented by the U.S. and says it does not meet stringent criteria for reliability.

Syria's state news agency is reporting that government forces have captured a suburb of Damascus near the capital's international airport.

SANA says troops killed several rebels and destroyed their hideouts in the Ahmadiyeh area on Saturday, two days after a mortar round landed near the airport's runway and briefly disrupted flights.

A local rebel commander who identified himself by his nickname, Abu Hareth, for fear of government reprisals, said soldiers and rebels have been fighting sporadically in the area since late Friday. He said two rebel fighters have been killed there since.

Ahmadiyeh is part of a region known as Eastern Ghouta, where government forces have been on the offensive for weeks.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

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Jumaat, 14 Jun 2013

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US stocks end lower ahead of Fed meet

Posted: 14 Jun 2013 05:09 PM PDT

NEW YORK: US stocks gave up an early rally and ended lower Friday amid some slightly downbeat economic data and caution ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy board meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 105.90 points (0.70 per cent) at 15,070.18.

The broad-based S&P 500 lost 9.63 (0.59 per cent) at 1,626.73, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite fell 21.81 (0.63 per cent) to 3,423.56.

A flat reading on US industrial production last month, a decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and a modest gain in May producer prices clouded trade.

The fresh data pointed to the Federal Open Market Committee keeping its stimulus policy in place when it meets on Tuesday and Wednesday.

In addition, the International Monetary Fund pared its 12014 forecast for US growth, blaming the government's sharp "sequester" spending cuts.

"The deficit reduction in 2013 has been excessively rapid and ill-designed," it said.

"A slower pace of deficit reduction would help the recovery at a time when monetary policy has limited room to support it further."

Shares in Myriad Genetics sank 13.8 per cent after several companies announced competing products to its BRCA1 and BRCA2 genetic cancer tests in the wake of the Supreme Court's ruling that the company cannot patent the two genes.

Groupon shares jumped 11.5 per cent to $7.65 after Deutsche Bank gave the online coupon dispenser an upgrade and a $10 target.

Banks were hit in the fall: American Express lost 3.0 per cent, Citigroup 2.1 per cent and JPMorgan Chase 1.9 per cent.

In the tech sector, Facebook shares were off 0.4 per cent and Microsoft fell 0.9 per cent. -- AFP

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Getting weapons to Syrian rebels not that hard - USA TODAY

Posted: 14 Jun 2013 08:11 AM PDT

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen welcomes a "clear" US statement accusing the Syrian regime of using chemical weapons, and said Damascus must let the UN investigate the allegations. Powered by NewsLook.com

Now that President Obama has decided to provide military assistance to Syrian rebels the next step is easy, says a military analyst who's been studying the Syria conflict.

U.S. intelligence has vetted the rebel forces to determine who should get the arms and it has a willing middleman in Turkey, on Syria's northern border, said Christopher Harmer, an analyst with the Institute for the Study or War.

A NATO member. Turkey has air bases and ports that U.S. forces have used in the past to move equipment and people to conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, he says.

Turkey's Incirlak Air Base, which is technically a NATO air base, is one likely hub for U.S. supplied weapons intended for the rebels, Harmer says.

"The US moves cargo through there all the time," Harmer said. Establishing a supply route to the rebels "is not that hard."

According to USA TODAY reporting in Turkey, the United States has already been sending communications equipment to rebels of the Free Syrian Army through Turkey. Rebels have said they have picked up shipments in Istanbul and driven them across the border into Syria along secure routes.

Turkey has sea ports for larger shipments. But most of the weapons rebel leaders have requested are light weapons, chief among them shoulder-fired missiles. The missiles are wanted to shoot down Syrian aircraft or disable Syrian tanks.

If the USA agrees to provide such weapons they can be delivered to Turkey by air, Harmer said. Arms could then travel by truck or rail to the Turkish border with Syria, and that's where U.S. control over the weapons will likely end, Harmer said.

The effort depends on Turkish cooperation. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has already allowed weapons from saufi Arabia and Qatar to transit through his country and supports the toppling of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime.

The Syrian rebels control at least 20 miles of Syrian territory south of the Turkish border, "so there's no really no mechanical way for the Syrian government to stop them," Harmer said.

However, there is a risk that Syria will directly attack Turkey over the shipments. Syria has already fired missiles into Turkey territory along the border to target weapons shipments and rebel fighters who seek protection on the Turkey side of the border. Turkey has been hosting around one million Syrian refugees, and rebels have camps there as well.

The U.S. presence in Syria itself will likely be very small, limited to CIA or special forces operators, and focused on identifying rebel groups they can trust, Harmer said.

"We don't want to provide weapons to al-Qaeda affiliates" who are known to also be fighting the government in Syria, he said.

When the conflict started, the identity and motivations was not well understood. Harmer said two years have changed that situation completely. The Institute for the Study of War and other independent groups have completed extensive studies on the various rebel groups.

"We know from open sources, YouTube videos and interviews who are secular freedom lovers and who are the extremist religious types," Harmer said.

Iran elections: the world hopes for change, but is likely to be disappointed - The Guardian

Posted: 14 Jun 2013 09:01 AM PDT

Iranian voter
An Iranian voter with the inked finger that shows she has cast her ballot in the country's presidential elections. Photograph: Ahmad Halabisaz/Xinhua Press/Corbis

Predicting the outcome of Iranian presidential elections is notoriously difficult – Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was virtually unknown when he won his first term in 2005. But aside from the near certainty of surprises the only other constant is that the outside world will be hoping to see different policies from whoever replaces the unlamented incumbent. Satisfaction is far from guaranteed.

Surging support for the cleric Hassan Rouhani over the past few days has been a salutary reminder of the volatility of these races. Under Iran's hybrid political system presidential candidates are vetted on the authority of the theocratic "supreme leader" but chosen by popular vote.

The country's reformists are still battered and bruised – their two candidates in 2009 remain under house arrest – but supporters of the "Green" movement who believe they were robbed last time are still there and anxious to see better times.

Appearances count for a lot. The Iranian establishment has worked hard to forestall the sort of mass protests that followed the disputed election four years ago – not least because since then the world has witnessed the Arab uprisings (Tehran has relished portraying them as an "Islamic awakening") as well as the unrest in neighbouring Turkey.

Restrictions on the internet and domestic and foreign media are part of this preventive strategy. Turnout, always seen as important to underline the democratic legitimacy of the Islamic Republic in the face of its enemies at home and abroad, will matter too – though very large numbers are likely to favour the more moderate candidates.

Whoever becomes president, however, will face a familiar set of pressing domestic and international issues. The biggest one is the economy, battered by tightening sanctions imposed by the US to apply pressure over stalled nuclear negotiations. Iran's economy faces severe and long-standing structural problems that have been aggravated by the sanctions – even if it remains a taboo to link the two explicitly. Exchanges between the leading candidates on this point have been coded but unmistakable. It is clear, however, that the big issue is that of Iran's isolation in the wider world – the point on which the clownish and provocative Ahmadinejad aroused most anger.

It was striking that Ali Akbar Salehi, the foreign minister, declared as he cast his vote that he hoped for improved relations with the US – a handy reminder that, revolutionary ideology aside, many Iranians still admire America. Making precisely the opposite point, the Supreme Leader himself – who at 74 seems unlikely to temper his hostility to the country which engineered the overthrow of Mossadegh and backed the shah – lashed out at Washington. "To hell with you if you do not believe in our election!" said Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. It was a blunt response to comments by US officials that they do not have "high expectations" that the election will change "the fundamental calculus of Iran".

That certainly seems true of Saeed Jalili, the hardliner and current nuclear negotiator who is seen as Khamenei's personal choice. But would a different winner, Rouhani or Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, the technocratic mayor of Tehran, display more flexibility to win support among young Iranians (a third of the 50-million-strong electorate are under the age of 30) though that could risk the opposition of the powerful Revolutionary Guards, the loyal keepers of Khomeini's flame? Maybe. But on the international issues it still seems unlikely. "Whoever wins will be very limited in their ability to influence foreign and nuclear policy," warns Ali Ansari of St Andrews University.

Expectations in the west, then, are sensibly low. But if there is to be change for the better in Iran after this election it could perhaps come in a new and better-functioning relationship between Khamenei and the president after the ructions of the Ahmadinejad years – his departure at least bringing audible sighs of relief from his many enemies.

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