>>> florida, pennsylvania, iowa, and wisconsin. candidates and their running mates and wiving continue to blitz swing states today. brand-new nbc news/" wall street journal " mariss poll shows president obama with a seven-point lead in new hampshire, two-point leads in nevada and north carolina . virginia could be the bellwether. both the president and mitt romney campaigned there yesterday, and the latest poll shows the president with with a slight edge. let me bring in perry bacon and susan . good to see both of you. good morning.
>> good morning.
>> i'm sure you saw what charles c krauthhammer wrote this morning. make the case and go large. it might just work and it's not too late. what do you think, susan ? does mitt romney need to take risks and go big?
>> one thing is for sure. the debate this week in denver on wednesday is a big deal for the romney campaign. he has to make his case, and he has to make his case he's a better candidate than barack obama . he has to throw some punches. he can't just kind of go in there sort of apologetically and be very gentle with obama . he has to really throw some punches and show people why he's the better candidate. i think a lot of these polls are a little bit overstated. i think the democrats have been oversampled in a lot of polls, and i don't think there's that huge of a gap between romney and obama . nonetheless, he has to make a really strong stand in the first debate. this is probably the most important debate for him at this point in the campaign.
>> i don't want to let that statement about polls go unanswered. eugene robinson 's piece today is about what he calls the new conspiracy. republicans diluted that there are skewed polls. paul ryan was the latest one to join on the bandwagon last night talking about wisconsin.
>> i don't believe that particular poll. i won't get into the methodologies about it.
>> they weren't talking about a specific poll in na statement, which sounds like it doesn't matter to him which poll it is but it's tainted. what's your take on this? we've heard it a lot over the last 48 hours .
>> look at all the polls. if you go to realclearpolitics.com, for instance, in every poll in every swing state the president is a hit, it's hard to find a poll in a swing state where romney is leading. if you look at the data right now, we're looking at an election that looks more like 2008 than 2004 . the president is ahead in almost every swing state , whether you look at gallup pews or pugh poll or nbc news polls, the president is far ahead right now. romney does five points nationally in some big swing state that romney does need a big move in the debates to change the game. anytime a campaign says a poll is wrong, it's a sign they're not doing well from my experience doing politics.
>> susan , if you look at new hampshire where his lead is larger, but in north carolina and nevada it's close, and those are states not doing as well economically. does that make sense to you, that that's where mitt romney would be keeping it closer? i'm trying to get to the heart of this complaint about these skewed polls.
>> the idea behind the complaint is it's not the same dynamic as it was in 2008 . the idea that democrats would be turning out in the same mhuge numbers as they were in 2008 which some polls suggest doesn't make any sense. the economy is on the verge of another recession according to a lot of nonpartisan think tanks . people are out of work and the unemployment rate is skyrocketing. the idea the democrats turn out with the same numbers and the same level of enthusiasm as they did in 2008 has raised, rightfully so, the number of democrats sampled in the polls.
>> perry , what are hearing about the internal polls?
>> the romney campaign keeps putting out memos say the race is closer than the polls show. if it showed they were winning by a lot, they would say that. the romney campaign privately does not they think the polls awrong. they say the poll show obama leading by more than think he is. it's not they're saying the polls are wrong. when every national poll -- i don't think we can say -- when fox news' poll shows obama ahead in a bunch of swing states recently, i don't think we can say the polls are wrong and biased because fox news conservative leading. they show what the polls are showing as well. the president has a strong lead. pollsters have a strong incentive to have their polls be accurate, because that's what their profession is. i'm skeptical they're tries to missample people. the finding more democrats are anyway poll, when a democratic candidate is popular, more people call themselves democrats . that doesn't mean the poll is wrong. more people call themselves democrats than they might have been four or five weeks ago.
>> let me bring in mark m mckinnon. we'll bring you into this conversation. i want to start with something that newt gingrich said this morning on " morning joe ." mark, let me play that.
>> everybody i talk to agrees he's had two and a half very tough weeks, and i do agree. i think they started with the clinton speech, and then they got compoundeded by all the other stuff that happened. the person in the cross hairs in the next ten days is mitt romney .
>> let me ask you about your thought of where the campaign is right now, and if he's in the cross hairs feeling the heat , is he the kind of guy that stomach bems and withers, or is he the candidate to take that as i'm hitting rock bottom and i'm going to start to climb up?
>> well, i mean, mitt romney has shown a lot of resolve through the primaries, and he bounced back from a lot of bad periods. i remember well in september of 2000 we called it black september and we were down 3 to 5 points. it wasn't until the dethe baits we turned things around. there's opportunity here for sure, but what the romney campaign has to do, which is sort of what charles krauthhammer is saying is start to talk about policy and go big.
>> how does do that?
>> he takes an opportunity at the dethe bait to have defining moments. he can talk specifically about the tax plan he put out there, put specifics on the table. talk about where the deductions are going come from, talk about the entitlement reforms. talk about how, in fact, it's mitt romney mean-testing entitlement reforms. he's talking about returning benefits to seniors and others that don't make as much money, which is benefit redistribution.
>> well, i want to -- a lot of times when you look at where a campaign is, you can tell by how the money is moving. it was somethinging that the billionaire democrat has decided to give a million bucks it to a pro- obama super-pac including another half million for congressional races. before that he didn't think he wanted to do that or get involved. is he seeing a shift, and it's time to back the winning horse? do you watch the money and stay that gives me the indication of the mood out there?
>> of course. in politics you always follow the money, and that's a great example. george has seen the poker hand . he sees that obama is holding three aces and romney is trying to drive to an inside straight. he's putting his money on the table now.
>> do you think that similarly the republican money is going to start to dry up, or will you see people who start to get worried and put more in?
>> i think it's already drying up, and it's problematic. the republicans made a big bet on late money, and a lot of late money may not be there.
>> i want to ask buyou about a lot of buzz out there by what congressman todd akin said. he told "the kansas city star " that claire mchas kill had a confidence and more ladylike in 2006 . in the debate on friday she came out swinging and because she felt threatened. he also called her a wildcat. here's what nor the senator said on " morning joe ."
>> i don't know what his accusation not ladylike mines. i'm a former prosecutor and i'm strong and informed. he sometimes makes michele bachmann look like a hippy.
>> does this bring back this whole war on women narrative that's not repful to the republicans ?
>> of course it does. i have two words for todd akin . he is idiot-like. it does. it sends a message to the broader public and certainly independent voters in missouri that the republican running there is prehistoric. it brings up issues that republicans don't want to talk about right now. we want to talk about economic issues and not the issues that todd aakin keeps dragging back in.
>> some folks came out for him in recent days saying the republican establishment needs to get behind him. there's indications they're thinking about it. if they did that, would that be a big mistake ?
>> well, it's a strategy of necessity. he's the senate slot that could bring the majority to the republicans , so they don't have a choice now because he's in the race. they're trying to save him. this is a good example of what happens when you make the wrong bet in the primaries and elect the wrong people to represent your party in the primaries.
>> always interesting to have you on the program. thank you so much.
>> you bet.
>> let's bring susan and perry back in. i want to play another piece of what claire mhaskell said this morning.
>> watch the national republicans . they've all said it was unacceptable what he did, and i think scott brown and linda mcmahon and a lot of candidates out there are really going to be in trouble if the national republicans now go back on their word and come in and here try to fund todd akin .
>> susan , do you agree with that?
>> i agree that the democrats would really love to attach todd aakin to some of these critical swing state elections like brown in massachusetts. that's a real close race with democrat elizabeth warren , who definitely has her own problems with some of the things she's said and in connecticut as well. typically blue states where republicans have a real shot at winning. i think the problem for claire is in her own state is a state trending conservative. it's a state where people are unhappy with some of the major initiatives that claire mchas kill supported while p in congress. despite the gaffes she's running hard to hang onto her seat. this is not a done deal as i think her camp would be after he made those controversial statements last month. i think claire mccaskill , the fact she's talking about it shows she knows it's a competitive race in her state right now. we're going to see morance dorisments today. chip told akin to drop out and he's endorse him today. if they want to get ahold of the senate majority next year, they need to have a net gain of four seats and missouri is an important state and a must win state for republicans .
>> how hard a calculation, then, perry is that for them if they think they have a chance? they would love to win that seat. on the other hand, what are the consequences in other races if it brings up up rape comments again and the war on women?
>> it's where we are politically. the senate majority is so close they have to support akin. if you're scott brown , you have to figure on out a successful way it to distance yourself from akin and the broader republican party . if you're scott brown you're already doing it anyway because obama will win massachusetts by 20 points probably. brown is already doing that in some ways. i don't think supporting aakin in mosby the national party would kill scott brown known in the state as an independent person anyway. i think some of those republican candidates are artful enough to survive that particular move.
>> perry bacon, susan , thank you is both. it was great
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