As the two months of street demonstrations escalate in Kiev and spread throughout Ukraine, the anti-government forces's chances of unseating unpopular president, Viktor Yanukovich, grow. A victory of the loose alliance of pro-Western and nationalist forces in Ukraine would be Vladimir Putin's first defeat after successfully running circles around Europe and the United States for years.
Putin had counted on Russian bailout funds and low gas prices to deflate Yanukovich's street opposition. That did not work, but worse for Putin, the Ukrainian crisis is coming to a boil as his Sochi moment approaches. He must be on his best behavior through the February Olympic games – not a good time for Putin to deploy his strong arm tricks on behalf of Yanukovich.
Vitaly Klitschko, World Heavyweight champion, Ukraine Protest Leader
Democracy is a rare and fragile flower in what used to be the Soviet Union. The Baltic states are the exception with three solid democracies integrated into the European Union. The USSR's largest former republic, Russia, seems lost to democracy for the next two decades at least. The Caucasus and Central Asia are run by dictators, who served as republic party secretaries in the old days (or by their children if they have died). Belarus is manhandled by the "last dictator of Europe." Only tiny Georgia holds out hope, unless or until it is squashed by Putin's forces.
What is happening on Ukraine's streets is a mirror image of the Moscow protests following the rigged parliamentary elections of December 2011 and Putin's reelection (no viable candidates allowed) in March of 2012. The Moscow middle class and intelligentsia had enough. They turned out in tens of thousands on the streets, only to be crushed by Putin's riot police, mass arrests, shutting down alternative media, and jailing and muzzling of protest leaders. After a rocky start to Putin's third term, his draconian policies have put him in firm control of Russia and its streets. If it worked for Putin why not for Yanukovich?
European Union membership requires democracy and a rule of law. Yanukovich realized that his corrupt and lawless regime would not be tolerated in the European Union, and his surprise decision not to sign an association agreement with Europe set off the Kiev street protests. Ukrainians, who saw closer ties to Europe as their path to affluence, order, and honest government, took to the streets.
Yanukovich, at first, saw little reason to be concerned. After all, he had Putin's $15 billion bailout in his pocket, and protesters could not hold out long in minus 10 degrees centigrade temperatures. Just sit back and watch the protests fizzle. If not, Yanukovich had Putin's game plan to use against protesters. He had his rubber-stamp parliament criminalize street demonstrators. People tracked by GPS on their way to protests, received warnings on their cell phones. Yanukovich unleashed paid goon squads on the crowds. But with each successive crackdown crowds grew as reports of brutality and even of fatalities came in. Official brutality which cowed Moscow demonstrators only served to further enrage and spur on their Kiev counterparts.
The last two months have taught Yanukovich that Kiev is not Moscow. Whereas the Moscow demonstrators stood little chance, the Kiev uprising and demonstrations in the regions now stand a good chance of winning for the following reasons:
First, Ukraine's capital and largest city, Kiev, lies in the Ukrainian speaking pro-western heart of Ukrainian nationalism. Whereas, in Moscow, the demonstrators represented a small portion of an otherwise apathetic population, large majorities of Kievans want Yanukovich and his government gone. Kiev provides a powerful base for anti-government protests. Moscow did not.
Second, the Moscow demonstrations lacked a clear and prominent leader, the closest being anti-corruption blogger, Alexei Navalny. Putin has made sure that Navalny cannot form his own political party. In Ukraine, former world heavyweight boxing champion, Vitaly Klitschko, is a national legend enjoying widespread popularity in Germany, where he and his brother are featured in yogurt commercials. Klitschko is a wealthy man, whom the people realize would be immune from corruption. Although not a spellbinding orator, he gets his point across and is known for his charitable contributions, intelligence, decency, common sense, and persistence. He has successfully formed his own political party, aptly named Udar (the blow). Klitschko and his two fellow protest leaders are not tainted by the abject failures of the leaders of the Orange Revolution — Timoshenko and Yuschenko — who squandered their chance with internecine political battles. The "old" didn't work. Klitschko gives the Ukraine a new political face and new hope.
Third, Yanukovich cannot count on the support of Ukraine's oligarchs, many of whom control delegates to the Ukrainian parliament. Unlike Putin, who has completed the redistribution of Russian wealth to former KGB colleagues and loyal oligarchs, Yanukovich is caught up in the process of transferring the wealth of Ukraine's first oligarchs to his supporters, loosely called "The Family." Yanukovich has used his tax police and prosecutor's office to threaten and intimidate some of Ukraine's most powerful business leaders. They clearly understand that they can only protect their wealth from arbitrary seizure in a rule-of-law state, like Europe requires. Many of Ukraine's embattled oligarchs would be "pleased as punch" if Yanukovich were to go.
Fourth, the Ukrainian people, like their Russian counterparts, experience on a daily basis the massive corruption of their governing elite. The Russians have decided there is nothing they can do about it under Putin. Ukrainians are still in a hopeful mode. They believe that under someone like Klitschko, they can get some relief from the burden imposed upon them by government theft.
Fifth, Ukrainians know their tragic history under Moscow rule. Stalin sent in his Russian commissars to squeeze Ukraine dry. Ukrainians are still incensed by the Russian imposed holodomor (death by starvation) of 1931-1932. They want a true Ukrainian government to demand reparations from Russia for the millions of lives lost to starvation. They remember the repression of Ukrainian intellectuals and writers, who were deemed dangerous to Soviet rule. They cannot forget the Russian army's and secret police's brutal suppression of Ukrainian nationalists in the run up to and after World War II.
News flashes describe Ukrainian regions on fire with protests. Demonstrators have taken control of municipal offices in Lviv, Ivanovo, Chernivtsi, and Lutsk. There are even isolated reports of demonstrations in Yanukovich's strongholds in eastern Ukraine.
The protesters seem to be gaining the upper hand. After refusing to negotiate with the protest leaders, Yanukovich has offered protest leaders government posts. Klitschko was offered the post of deputy prime minister (an arrangement that Zimbabwe's Mugabe tricked his opposition leader into accepting with disastrous consequences). In former Soviet republics, it is well understood that those who control the "power ministries" of defense, secret police, and the prosecutor's office control the country. Notably, Klitschko and his two fellow protest leaders have rejected the offer. Their position remains firm – Yanukovich must go and new elections, overseen by an honest electoral commission, must be held.
A return to democracy and to Europe of the 50-million-person-strong Ukraine would alter the depressing landscape of what used to be the USSR. A Ukraine deeply integrated into Europe would put an end to Putin's dream of restoring the Soviet empire.
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