Isnin, 25 November 2013

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Longer-Term Deal With Iran Faces Major Challenges - New York Times

Posted: 25 Nov 2013 08:55 AM PST

LONDON — The Obama administration's successful push for an accord that would temporarily freeze much of Iran's nuclear program has cast a spotlight on the more formidable challenge it now confronts in trying to roll the program back.

For all of the drama of late-night make-or-break talks in Geneva, the deal that Secretary of State John Kerry and his negotiating partners announced early on Sunday was largely a holding action, meant to keep the Iranian nuclear program in check for six months while negotiators pursue a far tougher and more lasting agreement.

By itself, the interim pact does not foreclose either side's main options or require many irreversible actions — which was why the two sides were able to come to terms on it. That was also a reason for the sharp negative reaction the deal elicited on Sunday from Israel, an American ally that is deeply suspicious of Iranian intentions.

Named the "Joint Plan of Action," the four-page agreement specifies in terse language the steps Iran would initially take to constrain its nuclear effort, and the financial relief it would get from the United States and its partners.

A few technical details are left to footnotes. The agreement's preamble says that a more comprehensive solution is the eventual goal, and the broad elements of that solution are given in bullet points on the final page. The agreement allows Iran to preserve most of its nuclear infrastructure, and along with it the ability to develop a nuclear device, while the United States keeps in place the core oil and banking sanctions it has imposed.

The questions that the United States and Iran need to grapple with in the next phase of their nuclear dialogue, if they want to overcome their long years of enmity, are more fundamental.

"Now the difficult part starts," said Olli Heinonen, the former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Even the planned duration of the comprehensive follow-up agreement is still up in the air. It will not be open-ended, but there is as yet no meeting of the minds on how many years it would be in effect. The interim agreement says only that it would be "for a period to be agreed upon."

"The terms of the comprehensive agreement have yet to be defined, but it is suggested that that agreement will itself have an expiration date," said Ray Takeyh, a former State Department official and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "It would be good if the comprehensive agreement was more final."

Iran's program to enrich uranium also needs to be dealt with in detail. The Obama administration has made clear that it is not prepared to concede at the start that Iran has a "right" to enrich uranium. But the interim deal, reflecting language proposed by the American delegation, says the follow-up agreement would provide for a "mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency."

So the question appears to be not whether Iran will be allowed to continue enriching uranium, but rather what constraints the United States and its negotiating partners will insist on in return, and how large an enrichment program they are willing to tolerate. The interim accord makes clear that it must be consistent with "practical needs." Iran and the United States are likely to have very different ideas of what those needs are.

"This, of course, will be one of the central issues in the negotiations for a comprehensive agreement," said Gary Samore, who served as senior aide on nonproliferation issues on the National Security Council during the Obama administration and is now president of United Against Nuclear Iran, an organization that urges that strong sanctions be imposed on Iran until it further restricts its nuclear efforts.

"We will want very small and limited," Mr. Samore said, referring to Iran's enrichment efforts. "They want industrial scale."

Jodi Rudoren contributed reporting from Jerusalem.

Thanksgiving travel plans under threat in Northeast as deadly storm closes in - NBCNews.com

Posted: 25 Nov 2013 08:59 AM PST

Parts of California and the Southwest were slammed by severe weather over the weekend, with 13 deaths reported. NBC's Dylan Dreyer reports.

By Alexander Smith and Erin McClam, NBC News

A deadly winter storm system is threatening plans for millions of Americans who will fly or drive somewhere for Thanksgiving — with some of the worst weather expected on Wednesday, the busiest travel day of the year.

Storms have already heaped up to a foot of snow on the mountains of Utah and Colorado and claimed 13 lives, including a 4-year-old girl who was killed in a rollover crash on an icy road in New Mexico.

Now the weather pattern is picking up speed and heading for the Northeast, and the 43 million Americans who plan to travel for Thanksgiving are at risk. Rain and ice sweeping across the South will converge with a storm system pushing down from the Great Lakes.

"That is a lethal combination for winter weather in the Northeast," said Tom Niziol, a winter weather expert for The Weather Channel.

Among the 43 million travelers are 3.1 million expected to fly. Flights could be delayed in New York, Boston, Washington and Baltimore. That is because of expected low clouds and strong wind, said Kevin Roth, lead meteorologist for The Weather Channel.

In the Northeast, the worst weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

"If people traveling can get out before then, or wait until afterward, that would be the best thing," Roth said.

Full coverage from weather.com

The system moving across the South is expected to bring ice to Tennessee, Kentucky, Virginia, West Virginia and parts of the Carolinas late Monday night and into Tuesday.

On Tuesday, it will link up with the system pushing down from the Great Lakes, bringing heavy snow to parts of Pennsylvania and upstate New York, and heavy rain closer to the Northeast coast.

The storm is forecast to dump up to a foot of snow on Buffalo and Syracuse, N.Y., and up to eight inches on Pittsburgh, Roth said.

After a frigid, blustery weekend in the Northeast, 1,000 people were already without power in Connecticut after high wind brought down a power line, NBC Connecticut reported.

A winter storm system already has killed eight, while bringing snow to the southwest. Now, the system is making its way to northeast and could impact holiday travel severely. NBC's Miguel Almaguer reports.

The storm system threatening Thanksgiving plans started in the West on Thursday, where it killed three people in California. It moved on to New Mexico and Texas, both of which were under winter storm warnings Monday.

Up to 11,000 people were without power in parts of Texas over the weekend, the utilities said, and NBC Dallas Fort-Worth reported that 300 flights were canceled there Saturday and Sunday in anticipation of ice.

The storm sped up and moved on through Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. Three of the people died in a pileup of a dozen vehicles in the Texas Panhandle, and four were killed in Oklahoma, officials told NBC News. Another man was killed in flooding in Arizona.

By Thanksgiving Day, the system will have moved out over the Atlantic Ocean.

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